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23 July 2019

Emerson Michael, Hu Biliang, Nag Rajat M., Starr Frederick S., Vinokurov Evgeny. The Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and South Caucasus: the Perspectives of China, Russia, the European Union, India, and the United States of America

Most countries in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region have a multi-vector approach to their external relations and hence would expect to rely on multiple partners to help advance their national economic and political agendas. Moreover, it is clear that, for the best possible impact of the BRI, cooperation not only among the countries of the region and with China, but also with other partners—bilateral and multilateral—will be needed. It is thus important for the CASC countries to understand the motivations and concerns of the outside powers that may have a role in making the BRI a success (or a failure, as the case may be). This publications compiles the five background notes prepared by experts from these outside powers

Emerson Michael, Hu Biliang, Nag Rajat M., Starr Frederick S., Vinokurov Evgeny. The Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and South Caucasus: the Perspectives of China, Russia, the European Union, India, and the United States of America

04 July 2019

Republic of Tajikistan. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019
In 2018, Tajikistan's economy grew by 7.3% amid slowing inflation. The key drivers of growth were public capital spending aimed at the implementation of key public investment projects, in particular, the construction of the Rogun HPP. High share of imported goods in those investments reflected in deterioration of the balance of payments.

Republic of Tajikistan. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019

04 July 2019

Republic of Armenia. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019
Armenia's economy grew by 5.3% in 2018. Growth was significantly aided by increase in inventories, including those to be used in the exploration of the Amulsar gold mining site. Inflation remained well below the target range of the Central bank of Armenia due to the real appreciation of the exchange rate, slowing consumer demand and subdued world food prices. Consolidation of budget expenditures in accordance with the requirements of the new Budget Rule and changes in tax legislation has brought a reduction in the fiscal deficit and resulted in the surplus of the primary balance.

Republic of Armenia. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019

04 July 2019

Republic of Belarus. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.
In 2018, strong growth in consumption led the acceleration of economic growth to 3%. Wages and credit growth supported consumer demand. Conservative interest rate policy allowed the National Bank of Belarus to keep inflation within the targeted value. Favorable market conditions, reinforced by reduced public state financial support to the SOEs, ensured the increase in the Augmented Budget surplus. Despite pressures coming from imports of consumption goods, the current account deficit continued to decelerate as a result of the favorable global price of oil and potassium.

Republic of Belarus. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

04 July 2019

Kyrgyz Republic. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

In 2018, Kyrgyzstan's GDP grew by 3.5%, driven by consumer demand, which was supported by the inflow of remittances. At the same time, compared to the previous year, economic growth slowed down on the back of consolidation of public capital expenditures. Inflation remained well below the target of the National Bank favored by a good harvest. In 2018, budget deficit significantly declined to 2.1% of GDP as compared to 5.8% of GDP a year earlier, driven by both expenditure reduction and revenue growth. According to EFSD estimations, the growth rate of the Kyrgyz economy is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2019 driven by continued growth of gold production. At the same time, there are short-term macroeconomic risks associated with public finance and exchange rate management.

Kyrgyz Republic. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

04 February 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative in Northern Eurasia: Current, State, Barriers to Development, Interests, and Policies

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative in Northern Eurasia: Current, State, Barriers to Development, Interests, and Policies

04 February 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative. A Background Paper for the Emerging Market Forum 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative. A Background Paper for the Emerging Market Forum 2019

19 October 2018

A joint RFA staff paper
This joint paper is written by the staff members of the listed Regional Financing Arrangements. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions involved or their shareholders

A joint RFA staff paper

08 October 2018

A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OF ARMENIA, BELARUS, KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN
In 2009–2017, economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lived through periods of adverse external and domestic conditions characterized by weak external demand and falling export prices. Devaluation of domestic currencies following the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble, led to fast growth of public debt in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. This growth of debt was also a consequence of fiscal stimulus, which supported budget expenditures, “compensating” for fall in tax revenues due to economic recession. During this period, government debt not only increased, but its structure changed, which created additional risks to debt sustainability. This article analyzes four risk factors for the public debt of these economies. First, the decrease in the share of concessional loans, and, consequent increase of debt service can put pressure on fiscal situation and macroeconomic stability in the medium term. 

A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OF ARMENIA, BELARUS, KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN

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