The Eurasian Stabilization and Development Fund estimated the availability and volumes of macrostabilization financing for Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

29 June 2020

The funds disbursed from all the sources in 2009–2019 totalled at least $16 bln. The use of stabilization financing sources has been cyclical and linked to economic crises. 

Moscow, June 29, 2020. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD, Fund), has published a working paper “Global Financial Safety Net in Eurasia: Accessibility of Macroeconomic Stabilization Financing in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan”. The analysis is of particular importance in the context of the current crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. 

In the course of economic crises, in order to mitigate their consequences, as well as immediately after the crises, in order to achieve macroeconomic stability, countries turn to various sources of concessional financing. In the Eurasian region, the data collected by the authors reveals two peaks that coincide with two crises and their aftermaths, i.e. a global one (2009–2010) and a regional one (2014–2015). 

In the working paper authors take into account six sources of financing - international reserves, swap arrangements, EFSD, IMF, multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support for macrostabilization. “From 2009 to 2019, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan used all the above-mentioned stabilization-financing instruments, - comments Evgeny Vinokurov, EFSD Chief Economist, - The use of stabilization financing sources has been cyclical and linked to economic crises”. Over the decade, the countries were experiencing the consequences of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, as well as the end-of‑2014 external economic shock and the Russian ruble depreciation. The sharpest decline in FX reserves was typical for the end of 2014 through the beginning of 2015, when the central banks in the region intervened to support the exchange rate amid external economic shock and the Russian ruble devaluation. The developed multi-layer financial support system has helped to mitigate the impact of these shocks. 

The funds disbursed from all the sources in 2009–2019 totalled at least $16 bln. The flow of these resources varied by country and year. Along with the massive financial support from the IMF, Armenia also received significant financing from the EFSD, MDBs, and Russia. Kyrgyzstan has primarily bilateral financial assistance from Russia and IMF financing for stabilization purposes. IMF, EFSD, and MDBs were the three most significant sources in Tajikistan. In Belarus, IMF, Russian bilateral assistance, and EFSD were the most significant sources of stabilization financing.

The working paper estimates the availability of stabilization financing for Armenia, Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan based on three approaches (see Table). The first approach summarizes all available sources of stabilization financing. However, massive depletion of the national reserves is an extreme scenario which would result in a balance of payments’ crisis. Hence, two other approaches – with national reserves decreasing by 25% in absolute terms and not taking into account the national reserves at all – are more practical for purposes of analysis.

Table. Analytical Assessment of Indicative Accessibility of Stabilization Financing Sources

by country, $ bln (percentage of GDP in brackets), as of 31.12.2019

Source

Armenia

Belarus

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

FX reserves

2,8

0,7 (scenario - reduction by 25%)

9,4

2,4 (scenario - reduction by 25%)

2,3

0,6 (scenario - reduction by 25%)

1,4

0,4 (scenario - reduction by 25%)

Current swap arrangements

0,0

1,0

0,0

0,0

EFSD

0,7–1,2

0,0–2,0

0,0–0,3

0,08–0,2

IMF

0,5–0,8

4,1

0,9–1,1

1,0

MDBs

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,1

Bilateral Support

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

n.d.

Total

4,2–5,0 (30,8-36,7 %)

14,7–16,7 (23,5-26,7%)

3,4–3,9 (40,2-46,1%)

2,3–2,4 (28,3-29,6%)

Total (scenario - 25% reduction in FX reserves)

2,1–2,9 (15,4-21,2%)

 

7,7–9,7 (12,3-15,5%)

1,7–2,2 (20,1-26%)

1,3–1,4 (16-17,2%)

Total (excluding FX reserves)

1,4–2,2 (10,3-16,2%)

5,3–7,3 (8,5-11,7%)

1,1–1,6 (13-18,9%)

0,9–1,0 (11-12,3%)

The calculations provided in table do not comprise data for bilateral support, so the final total should be viewed as a conservative estimate. While calculating accessibility, the authors take in to account various qualitative features such as donor coordination, the degree of conditionality of financing, varying terms and other peculiarities of the financing instruments. The working paper also attracts attention to the limited public access to information, in particular on bilateral support and the use of swap arrangements.

A deeper understanding of the available stabilization financing and the underlying toolkits will support EFSD in better assessments of how potentially available financing matches to the needs of recipient states. Therefore, it will help to more effectively plan and use the EFSD's crisis support resources. 

The full text of the working paper is available online

To access the Fund’s publications, please use this link.

Additional Information:

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution founded by Russia and Kazakhstan in January 2006 with the mission to facilitate the development of market economies, sustainable economic growth, and the expansion of mutual trade and other economic ties in its member states. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. The member states of the Bank are the Republic of Armenia, the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Tajikistan.

The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) amounting to US$8.513 billion was established on June 9th, 2009 by the governments of the same six countries. The EFSD assists its member states in overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis, ensuring their economic and financial stability, and fostering integration in the region. The EFSD member countries signed the Fund Management Agreement with Eurasian Development Bank giving it the role of the EFSD Resources Manager.

The EDB Media Centre:

Alexander Savelyev +7 (985) 765 23 59 (Moscow)        

Azima Sapargaliyeva +7 (777) 750 00 08 (Almaty)

Sergey Gorbachev +7 (916) 727 22 00 (Moscow)        

pressa@eabr.org

www.eabr.org


Источник:

Top