Evgeny Vinokurov, Chief Economist of the EFSD, took part in a dispute organized on the basis of Lomonosov Moscow State University on the topic economic development in Eurasia

05 June 2020

On June 3, 2020, the chief economists of the regional financing arrangements (RFAs) and the International Monetary Fund met at the first round table in this format. This virtual event is part of an expanding dialogue between the RFAs and the IMF which aims at improving the effectiveness of crisis response by strengthening the Global Financial Safety Net. The community of RFAs includes institutions from Europe, Eurasia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.

At the event, chief economists exchanged views on the macroeconomic situation in the global economy. The focus of the round table was on regional vulnerabilities. In particular, Evgeny Vinokurov noted that, while accessing the impact of COVID-19 on Eurasian economies, it is important to take into account strong transmission channels from the Russian economy to the economies of neighboring countries as well as an exceptionally high role of labor migration and remittances. The economist underlined the challenges associated with debt sustainability in the medium term. According to his estimates, one of the consequences of the current crisis in the Eurasian region will be an increase in the public debt to GDP ratio by an average of 7 percentage points in countries that receive EFSD funding. The issue of managing and servicing public debt will come at the forefront in many countries in the world after the end of the active phase of fighting СOVID-19.

All Regional Financial Arrangements and the IMF are closely monitoring economic dynamics. At the same time, there is a high level of uncertainty in economic estimates associated with different scenarios of the current pandemic. The group of Regional Financing Arrangements includes the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development, the European Stability Mechanism, the Arab Monetary Fund, the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement, the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR), and the ASEAN-3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization.