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04 July 2019

Republic of Tajikistan. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019
In the first half of 2019, Tajikistan's economy grew by 7.5% amid a sharp acceleration in inflation, primarily food one. The key driver of growth remains public investment aimed at the implementation of major projects, in particular, the construction of the Rogun HPP. The decline in total investment led to a slowdown in investment and intermediate imports, which resulted in a slight reduction in the foreign trade deficit.

Republic of Tajikistan. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019

04 July 2019

Republic of Armenia. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019
Armenia's economic growth slowed to 6.8% in the first half of 2019 as a result of a reduction in investment activity in the mining sector and a slowdown in the state capital expenditures. The driver of economic growth was consumer demand side, supported by an increase in consumer lending, as well as the growth of domestic income and income coming from abroad in the form of remittances. Annual inflation reached the lower limit of 2.5% of the target bound of the Central Bank of Armenia, but core inflation remained low under the influence of weak growth in the money supply. Maintaining high rates of economic growth and public control on expenditure growth led to a surplus execution of the state budget. Despite a slowdown in external demand and supply constraints on some major export items, favorable terms of trade have helped to reduce the current account deficit. For 2019, the EFSD forecast of economic growth was revised upwards from 4.4% to 5.4% due to changes in the dynamics of foreign trade, in particular, a decrease in the volume of investment imports.

Republic of Armenia. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019

04 July 2019

Republic of Belarus. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.
The structural constraints of the Belarusian economy and the decline in external demand, coupled with the incident on the Druzhba oil pipeline, which negatively affected the performance of a number of industries, led to a slowdown in Belarus' GDP growth to 0.9% in the first half of 2019. At the same time, the delayed effects of pro-inflationary factors, formed in 2018, affected the acceleration of annual inflation to 5.7%, which is higher than the target set by the National Bank at the level of 5% for the year. At the same time, monetary policy has had a restraining effect on price growth. The loss of revenues from trade in oil and petroleum products affected both the reduction of budget revenues and the deterioration of foreign trade indicators. Nevertheless, the augmented government budget balance remained positive against the background of conservative spending policies, and the current account deficit remained at the level of the first half of 2018 due to the increased surplus in trade in services. The updated forecast of the EFSD shows a slowdown in Belarus' economic growth from 2.4% to 1.7% at the end of 2019, which reflects a stronger- than- expected slowdown in the growth of major trading partners and a more significant decline in world prices.

Republic of Belarus. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

04 July 2019

Kyrgyz Republic. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

In the first half of 2019, strong growth in gold production and exports was a key factor in accelerating economic growth, while growth excluding gold slowed down compared to the same period of 2018. In January – June 2019, real GDP growth was 6.4%, while GDP excluding gold production, grew by 2.1%. According to the forecasts of the EFSD, the continued weak dynamics of inflation stimulated the easing of monetary policy, the preservation of which until the end of the year, amid the absence of external and internal shocks, will accelerate inflation to 3.5% by December 2019. Restrained expenditure policy, against the background of transfers received, was the main factor in improving the balance of the state budget in the first half of 2019. Given the continuing pace of gold production, the EFSD forecast for economic growth in Kyrgyzstan for 2019 remained unchanged at 3.8%. The assumption of zero contribution of gold production at the Kumtor gold mining field is the main factor in the projected slowdown of economic growth to 3.5% in 2020. Risks of forecast realization are connected with both domestic factors and external economic volatility.

Kyrgyz Republic. Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective. April 2019.

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