04 July 2019
In the first half of 2019, strong growth in gold production and exports was a key factor in accelerating economic growth, while growth excluding gold slowed down compared to the same period of 2018. In January – June 2019, real GDP growth was 6.4%, while GDP excluding gold production, grew by 2.1%. According to the forecasts of the EFSD, the continued weak dynamics of inflation stimulated the easing of monetary policy, the preservation of which until the end of the year, amid the absence of external and internal shocks, will accelerate inflation to 3.5% by December 2019. Restrained expenditure policy, against the background of transfers received, was the main factor in improving the balance of the state budget in the first half of 2019. Given the continuing pace of gold production, the EFSD forecast for economic growth in Kyrgyzstan for 2019 remained unchanged at 3.8%. The assumption of zero contribution of gold production at the Kumtor gold mining field is the main factor in the projected slowdown of economic growth to 3.5% in 2020. Risks of forecast realization are connected with both domestic factors and external economic volatility.
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