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31 March 2020

COVID-2019 and the Future of the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a very large-scale Chinese initiative supported by more than 130 countries around the globe, is by its very nature a cross-border phenomenon. Thus, it is vulnerable to the coronavirus-induced economic crisis. In this article, EFSD Chief Economist analyzes various negative effects of COVID-19 on the BRI for cross-border movement of goods and people, debt and fiscal sustainability of recipient countries, risks of diminishing availability of financial resources, risks for the emerging multilateralization of the BRI, etc. Based on that, he formulates a number of policy recommendations. The article ends up with a plea to look beyond the immediate effects and limitations faced in the heat of the battle against the coronavirus-induced crisis. The BRI community should perceive and treat the BRI as a truly long-term policy.

COVID-2019 and the Future of the Belt and Road Initiative

30 March 2020

Trans-Eurasian Container Traffic: a Belt and Road Success Story
Countries in Northern and Central Eurasia, including its largest economies, Russia and Kazakhstan, were among early believers in the value of the Belt and Road Initiative. Over the last years, they increasingly embraced various aspects of the BRI, most importantly additional investment and rising volumes of trans-Eurasian traffic. The latter, apart from being a lucrative business on its own, should eventually lead to better internal connectivity between inner-Eurasian regions. In this article EFSD Chief Economist provides data and estimates for the spectacular growth of the volumes of trans-Eurasian container transit. He explains the underlying reasons provides several suggestions on the issue of financing, the role of China, and the role of international financial institutions.  

Trans-Eurasian Container Traffic: a Belt and Road Success Story

23 July 2019

Emerson Michael, Hu Biliang, Nag Rajat M., Starr Frederick S., Vinokurov Evgeny. The Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and South Caucasus: the Perspectives of China, Russia, the European Union, India, and the United States of America

Most countries in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region have a multi-vector approach to their external relations and hence would expect to rely on multiple partners to help advance their national economic and political agendas. Moreover, it is clear that, for the best possible impact of the BRI, cooperation not only among the countries of the region and with China, but also with other partners—bilateral and multilateral—will be needed. It is thus important for the CASC countries to understand the motivations and concerns of the outside powers that may have a role in making the BRI a success (or a failure, as the case may be). This publications compiles the five background notes prepared by experts from these outside powers

Emerson Michael, Hu Biliang, Nag Rajat M., Starr Frederick S., Vinokurov Evgeny. The Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and South Caucasus: the Perspectives of China, Russia, the European Union, India, and the United States of America

04 February 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative in Northern Eurasia: Current, State, Barriers to Development, Interests, and Policies

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative in Northern Eurasia: Current, State, Barriers to Development, Interests, and Policies

04 February 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative. A Background Paper for the Emerging Market Forum 2019

Vinokurov, E. (2019) The Belt and Road Initiative. A Background Paper for the Emerging Market Forum 2019

19 October 2018

A joint RFA staff paper
This joint paper is written by the staff members of the listed Regional Financing Arrangements. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions involved or their shareholders

A joint RFA staff paper

08 October 2018

A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OF ARMENIA, BELARUS, KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN
In 2009–2017, economies of Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lived through periods of adverse external and domestic conditions characterized by weak external demand and falling export prices. Devaluation of domestic currencies following the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble, led to fast growth of public debt in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. This growth of debt was also a consequence of fiscal stimulus, which supported budget expenditures, “compensating” for fall in tax revenues due to economic recession. During this period, government debt not only increased, but its structure changed, which created additional risks to debt sustainability. This article analyzes four risk factors for the public debt of these economies. First, the decrease in the share of concessional loans, and, consequent increase of debt service can put pressure on fiscal situation and macroeconomic stability in the medium term. 

A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE PUBLIC DEBT OF ARMENIA, BELARUS, KYRGYZSTAN AND TAJIKISTAN

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