Working papers

An EFSD Series of Working Papers presents the Fund’s applied economic research. The working papers might cover such issues of global, regional and country economic trends; macroeconomic, fiscal and debt sustainability in the member countries; analysis of transmission mechanisms in the region; industry and infrastructure-relevant research: global financial architecture and the functioning of the Global Financial Safety Net, etc.

The EFSD Working Papers are published in Russian and English and made freely available to the public.

Reprinting of the text for non-commercial purposes, in whole or in part, including large fragments, and placing the text on external electronic resources are permitted with a link to the original text.

The EFSD Working Papers do not represent the official position of the Fund or its member states.

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27 August 2020

EFSD Working paper РД/20/3 « Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic Post-COVID‑2019: Debt Sustainability, Financing Needs, and Resilience to Shocks»
The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the sensitivity of economies and their debt positions to a wide range of disruptions: not only financial shocks may hamper economic growth, but health, political and environmental emergencies may also bring economic suffering

EFSD Working paper РД/20/3 « Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic Post-COVID‑2019: Debt Sustainability, Financing Needs, and Resilience to Shocks»

29 June 2020

EFSD Working paper WP/20/2 Global Financial Safety Net in Eurasia: Accessibility of Macroeconomic Stabilization Financing in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan
This working paper takes into account six sources of financing - international reserves, swap arrangements, EFSD, IMF, multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support for macrostabilization. The analysis is of particular importance in the context of the current crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The funds disbursed from all the sources in 2009–2019 totalled at least $16 bln.

EFSD Working paper WP/20/2 Global Financial Safety Net in Eurasia: Accessibility of Macroeconomic Stabilization Financing in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan

30 January 2020

EFSD Working Paper WP/20/1 «Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks»
The baseline scenario suggests that the dynamics of external and public debt would remain sustainable. External debt, which includes both private external debt and public external debt, is expected to decline from 83.8% of GDP in 2018 to 76.5% of GDP in 2024. The total public debt (includes domestic and external government debt) will go down from 56.0% to 52.1% of GDP in 2024, reflecting the favourable growth/interest rate differential (that is, we expect growth rates to be higher than interest rates). Nonetheless, the debt outlook in Kyrgyzstan remains fragile. Thus, the EFSD Chief Economist Group examined the resilience of the Kyrgyz debt under three stress-scenarios: (1) a global recession, (2) a financial crisis, and (3) the combination of a global recession and a financial crisis.

EFSD Working Paper WP/20/1 «Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks»

13 December 2019

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/2 « Achieving Stabilization and Development Objectives in a Single Agenda: The Experience of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Developmen
Responding to the agreements among RFAs reached during the 3rd RFA High Level Dialogue, EFSD led the research track on stabilization vs development agenda in the activities of regional financing arrangements

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/2 « Achieving Stabilization and Development Objectives in a Single Agenda: The Experience of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Developmen

23 October 2019

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/1 «The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development: A Regional Financing Arrangement and Its Place in the Global Financial Safety Net»
Over the decade after the 2008-2009 crisis, the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and in particular its regional components have acquired increasing importance. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) is a key element of the GFSN in the respective region. The objective of the first working paper is to bridge the gap in understanding the dynamics of EFSD development and its place in the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and the region’s financial architecture.

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/1 «The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development: A Regional Financing Arrangement and Its Place in the Global Financial Safety Net»

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